CICC: The Index Is Hard To Tell The Bottom Of &Nbsp; The Rebound Height Is Still Facing The Test.

Stock market index

It is already bottoming out and there may be a reversal in the future. However, we still believe that the recent rebound is only a short-term rebound caused by the change of emotional aspect, rather than a reversal. In the medium term, the probability that the stock index will continue to fall will be greater.

The main reason is that our current slowdown in China's economy has just started and investors are still not pessimistic about earnings expectations of listed companies, which will cause a sustained impact on the stock index in the future.

As far as policy is concerned, the result of more active management of the two quarter's data should not exceed the government's expectations. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect a major adjustment of the policy.

Although the reversal of stock market in history is before the economic bottoming up, the stock index will be in a downward direction at the beginning of the economic downturn, and we believe that the current economic trend is in the early stage of the top down.

pressure

Is also increasing.

On the one hand, the stock index has rebounded to 2500 points, and has returned to the intensive trading range from late May to the end of June, which has accumulated a large number of hold up chips in the interval. Therefore, the index of the two cities will be further rebounded, which will cause pressure on the further rebound of the market index. The stock market needs to continue to cooperate with the volume to break through this area. On the other hand, the coal based cyclical sector is the main force to drive the market in the near future. These plates have accumulated a larger profit margin. However, as the fundamentals of these sectors have not improved, their rise is expected to fluctuate more, and the pressure of such profit taking will limit the space for the stock index to rise.

Therefore, it is suggested that customers should control their positions, and customers with low positions can participate in rebounding. However, customers with high positions should still be reduced.

news

On the surface, the central bank will issue 80 billion yuan March central bank votes on 22 days, which is nearly 80% larger than the 45 billion yuan of last week's March central bank votes.

This week's opening of the open market is a foregone conclusion. This is the first net return of the central bank in nine weeks.

"Daily economic news" reported that in the Ministry of Finance recently held a seminar on local tax reform, people said that as part of the local tax reform, the housing tax pilot will start in 2012.

If the housing tax pilot does not start until 2012, at least before that, the expected pressure on the real estate sector, which is considered the most threatening property market regulation policy, will be greatly reduced. This news will provide some support for the optimism of the market.