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China's Stock Market Will Change Forever In The Next Few Years.
＜p＞ 如果我们足够尊重＜a href="//www.sjfzxm.com"＞市场＜/a＞，那么就应该从市场的现实表现中探寻发展的脉络和踪迹，而不是从简单的估值角度出发，埋怨市场的无效和失真，因为估值是一个滞后的表达，它的参考意义是相对的，绝对的判断依据从来都不是估值第一，或者技术分析第一，而是发展第一，估值和技术分析是可以量化的，发展不可以，证券投资难在哪里?难就难在最核心的东西不可量化，所以那些技术分析，那些基本面数据分析，根本就实实在在的测不准原理，最多是相对接近，99%的人为之穷尽精力，以为捧到了圣杯，其实多数是无用功，对对错错，时对时错，一部分人正加负大于零，一部分人正加负等于零，更多的人正加负小于零。 < /p >
＜p＞ 把握资本市场的密钥不在市场本身，而在市场之外，实际上就是对发展趋势的把握，这个趋势，小到产业发展，技术进展，大到经济周期和社会发展;所以看市场，应该尽可能的远，尽可能的高，证券市场的设计，短期看是顺人性的，长期则是反人性的，白话说就是你最喜欢什么，什么最能吸引你，什么就能立即呈现，所以多数人一开始很容易就进入了，很容易就尝到一点甜头了，并乐此不疲，操劳不断，但这基本是情绪主导的，理性很弱势，几乎毫无定性，人们被市场操练的像膝跳反映那么机械，小到散户，大到一些机构，都是如此，因此中短期市场行为成为资本市场的主流，无数投资个体的短期市场行为，造就资本市场的波动，就像完成一幅工笔画的过程，每一个细小的线条，无数个密密麻麻的组成，随着不断的积累，终于让人们看清了轮廓，看清了 Appearance, clear look, the opportunity is still dangerous, and finally the world; /p
< p > Buffett said: the role of the stock market is the center of a reconfiguration of resources, which is spanferred from the frequently traded short term traders to the long-term investors' pocket of patience. < /p >
< p > this sentence is indeed the core of winning the investment. Therefore, it is really ridiculous to see the stock market review, see what main force, big capital, pull up, shipment, purchase, and so on. Stock ratings need ratings, so close to the audience, but often a small stock assessment program, valuable information will not exceed three minutes. < /p >
< p > however, the stock review is still to be seen. The key lies in how to look at it. The highly consistent things need to be reversed. Experience shows that for those who are too resonant, generally speaking, the probability of winning is very high. In the recent comments, the highly consistent opinion is that 2014 will be very bad. The spring market is an important food market. This opinion is broad and representative, and many forum V also holds this view, to March, or optimistic to April, and so on. < /p >
Fundamentally speaking, this bull market, especially the bull market that the United States has repeatedly broken the historical high, is somewhat puzzling, but the sensitivity of the capital market has always been 100% accurate. It shows that there must be major industrial spanformation events in the future economy. In fact, for the United States, the replacement of the energy industry, the elimination and integration of the financial industry, the gradual realization of the electric vehicle and the large-scale industrial spanformation triggered by the mobile Internet all present unprecedented subversion expectations, and their endogenous and derivative forces are all unparalleled and unprecedented. The bull market is not only real, but also will last for a long time, and its influence is huge, so it has the ability to lead the global stock market to a positive trend. < p > since 2013, the major capital markets in the world have begun to enter a distinct bull market under the guidance of the US stock market, with a static economy. < /p >
P > has become the world's second largest economy in China. In the face of this change, there is a bit of confusion in the pace, chaos and chaos, and the pace of follow up has not stopped. The gem which represents the advanced productive forces and production relations has followed up very positively. The situation is better than that of the leading big brother Nasdaq, and the small board is also good. It has broken through a solid bottom, and only the motherboard has not followed up. For one reason, I tried to analyze the two articles of "efficiency of China's stock market" and "from chips to equity", but the observation angles of the two articles were relatively static, so they could not be the basis for the trend judgement. If we elongate the observation line and look at the problem more dynamically, it might help to judge the trend. < < /p >
The conclusion is based on the judgement of American Industrial Development and spanformation in the past twenty years and the geopolitical accumulation results of the US operation for many years. This article will not elaborate on it. Only the conclusion is drawn that China's gem will be able to follow the NASDAQ step by step on the basis of the economic spanformation expected from the business similarity and the strong demand of the national conditions and the gradual opening of the new stock market (mainly the GEM). The SME board and the gem have complementary effects, and the overall pace will gradually follow up the growth enterprise market. < p > first, the United States is a super long cycle of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > bull market < /a >. < /p >
＜p＞ 当前的实体经济数据，不论是CPI、PPI、GDP增速还是什么克强指数，都不具很强的参考意义，转型时期，本来这些数据就是弱参考，因为它能反映现实，却不是反映预期的强势数据，这是转型所特有的状态;而中国经济的转型，并不是新经济所能完全代表的，新经济只要给点阳光，自己及就灿烂了，因为它本来就是非常充分的市场化;更重要的是那些老旧势力的传统经济能不能顺利完成转型，这才是转型的攻坚战，是需要动用外力的，也是所谓十八大改革最核心的部分，股市表现的盛与衰，就是这个改革的直观写照，如果主板向1600乃至1400发展下去，那就是直接宣告习李新政三年不鸣，直接死掉，也别指望一鸣惊人了;同时也是向世界宣告，中国的银行体系，净资产之下有风险，净资产再腰斩，还是有风险，如果国家金融体系重镇在还未接受变革之前就死翘翘了 The eighteen big and nineteen most of them are not open. Let's call it a day.
＜p＞ 传统势力和体制的改变是漫长而充满了折磨体验的，中国资本市场的二十多年就是一个典型的验证，过程是：为国企解困(纯粹的夺民利益)----股权分置改革(与民让利)----中小板开市(资本市场不再为国企独占)----重量级国企央企大面积上市(与民让利后的对冲，再次夺利)----创业板开市(充分鼓励创业)，总体上看，这个过程是一个进步的过程，也是破冰之旅，只是传统或既得利益势力很强势，把持国民经济重要资源却又低效率，在实体经济中部分核心人员获益很大;但在资本市场上整体产业却逐渐遁形，因为资本市场是未来的预言师，超长期的萎靡不振，无视与之相配的所谓较好投资数据，就是宣告未来的死亡信息，不论是机构还是个人都用脚投票，漫长跌势，把它们的主要代表打到净资产下，实体经济中，新产业的蓬勃发展又在蚕食他们的垄断地盘，两厢夹 击，迫使传统顽固势力必须做出抉择，不改变等崩溃利益归零，重新洗牌，还是主动求变，学会妥协，答案应该是比较明确的，市场经济的优势就是它有能力让各方自然达成最优化选择，这是计划经济完全的盲点，如果市场经济没有这样的必杀技，整个世界的经济体系也不可能在经历半个世纪的冷战相持后，以一方几乎全面的崩塌而告终，中国的央企国企其实骨子里还是计划经济模式，效率低下是必然的，无非是受益于垄断，和整体国民经济的大踏步上位，这个过程中，它没有产生领航型产业的真正实力，禁绝于自由竞争的市场之外，至今居然还是政党力量主导企业管理，所以发展到今天，成为整体经济再上一层楼的滞后元素，而那些在自由经济海洋里遨游出来的产业，不过是十年左右的时间，其实力和影响力居然已经达到完全可以与之相持竞争的程度，银行业好 Two barrels of oil business, if there is no policy resistance, Tencent, Baidu and Ali such new economic predators want to involve in related businesses, breaking the bureau is almost easy, and in the long run, there is no strength to contain it. Unless you do not develop, so when the balance is tilted to the interests of the entire system are threatened, the demand for change naturally arises. < /p >
The issue of programmatic expression is not whether you want to change it or not. It is inevitable that how to change it is the focus of attention. So last week's two oil trading limit is not the same as before. According to inertia, the so-called market manipulation thinking is misreading. Now, just like the end of the Qing Dynasty, if the court of Emperor Guangxu is willing to change, learn from the British initiative to accept the constitutional monarchy, accept the bus book, do not kill six gentlemen, maybe it will not go back to the point of collapse completely. In fact, the opinions and opinions of the six gentlemen were adopted by the Qing court after their death. Unfortunately, the situation is over, and the opportunity can not be repeated; < /p > < p > since last year, the establishment of the Shanghai free trade area and the operation of the pilot reform of state-owned enterprises have been gradually changing to the two largest oil enterprises in the state owned enterprises.
＜p＞ 如果我们整理整个中国经济改革的大线条，就会看的很清楚，什么在进，什么在退，期间的反复和曲折又是什么，《从筹码到股权》一文中列举的数字说明，不断在进的民营经济已经成为中国经济的中坚力量，这就是趋势，异常强劲的，资本市场已经给了很好的展现;主板市场要涅磐重生的核心就在如何求变，不再是外在的给几个铜板的股权分置改革，而是内生体制上的变化，引入民营经济成分，引入市场竞争机制，淡化党政力量在企业经营权上的介入程度，还企业一个纯粹的市场运作环境，这必将是习李新政在未来十年要积极推进的核心，这样去做，无非是顺势而为，因为民智已经真正开启，谁会放弃这种顺水推舟就能扬名立万的机会呢?＜/p＞
＜p＞ 胡温十年，是房地产的十年，到了中后期房地产的财富效应令人疯狂，整个社会除了资本市场和一些电子产品是降价的，几乎全部商品都完成了价格飞涨，好在，历史经验表明，最终资本市场是不会错过这场价格盛宴的，一旦其财富效应被激发起来，它的膨胀力乃至泡沫化程度都是空前的，当前中国经过了十年的财富增长和积累，资金总量巨大，一方面房地产被推高再推高，另一方面真正具有长效财富增值能力的资本市场却冷寂一旁，今天从创业板开始逐渐推暖资本市场的财富效应，外部资本市场的全面激活也将不断加强人们的心理暗示，况且时至今日全球经济一体化的态势下，资产价格的上升效应早晚会传导，在总体经济发展趋势向上，政治相对稳定的前提下，繁荣也是会传染的，一旦资本市场的财富效应开始扩大和深化，在目前中国资金潮的规模下 It is absolutely sufficient to push up the upward energy of the capital market, that is, when the equilibrium point breaks through. < /p >
＜p＞ ＜a href="//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp"＞创业板＜/a＞是引领这个变局的引线和主导，它将贯穿整个牛市被引爆的全程，早就没有二八了，因为二的阵营不再具备其应有的实力，除非变革，变革成功，也就进入到八的行列中，也就开始了新的估值历程，资本市场自然也就有了新的动力和引擎，中国经济的格局和政治体制，虽有高效率，但这个效率是双刃剑，发展快和破坏力大是一样的强，而且它没有自我更新和升级的内生力，正常市场经济下，发展与回撤是并存的，发展产生新的经济元素，回撤消灭过剩产能，但是中国模式显然不能容忍回撤，这是违背经济发展规律的，死亡的公司，死亡的股票，都将在未来的变革中出现，也会尽可能的接近真正的市场经济模式。 < /p >
If you have enough knowledge of culture, you will recognize that the symbol of the most representative Chinese culture is the Great Wall. You will also understand that you will eventually lose to a completely open, free expression and self competitive system. The difference is the most valuable asset for human beings. Opening up, freedom and competition are the necessary tools for gold exploration from the treasure of diversity. It is the unyielding source of human creation and progress. Any culture or system that is harmful to people's access to these three tools is destined to be eliminated. As a small mirror, China's capital market will eventually draw its twists and turns for this process! < /p > < p > if the history of China
＜p＞ 把握资本市场的密钥不在市场本身，而在市场之外，实际上就是对发展趋势的把握，这个趋势，小到产业发展，技术进展，大到经济周期和社会发展;所以看市场，应该尽可能的远，尽可能的高，证券市场的设计，短期看是顺人性的，长期则是反人性的，白话说就是你最喜欢什么，什么最能吸引你，什么就能立即呈现，所以多数人一开始很容易就进入了，很容易就尝到一点甜头了，并乐此不疲，操劳不断，但这基本是情绪主导的，理性很弱势，几乎毫无定性，人们被市场操练的像膝跳反映那么机械，小到散户，大到一些机构，都是如此，因此中短期市场行为成为资本市场的主流，无数投资个体的短期市场行为，造就资本市场的波动，就像完成一幅工笔画的过程，每一个细小的线条，无数个密密麻麻的组成，随着不断的积累，终于让人们看清了轮廓，看清了 Appearance, clear look, the opportunity is still dangerous, and finally the world; /p
< p > Buffett said: the role of the stock market is the center of a reconfiguration of resources, which is spanferred from the frequently traded short term traders to the long-term investors' pocket of patience. < /p >
< p > this sentence is indeed the core of winning the investment. Therefore, it is really ridiculous to see the stock market review, see what main force, big capital, pull up, shipment, purchase, and so on. Stock ratings need ratings, so close to the audience, but often a small stock assessment program, valuable information will not exceed three minutes. < /p >
< p > however, the stock review is still to be seen. The key lies in how to look at it. The highly consistent things need to be reversed. Experience shows that for those who are too resonant, generally speaking, the probability of winning is very high. In the recent comments, the highly consistent opinion is that 2014 will be very bad. The spring market is an important food market. This opinion is broad and representative, and many forum V also holds this view, to March, or optimistic to April, and so on. < /p >
Fundamentally speaking, this bull market, especially the bull market that the United States has repeatedly broken the historical high, is somewhat puzzling, but the sensitivity of the capital market has always been 100% accurate. It shows that there must be major industrial spanformation events in the future economy. In fact, for the United States, the replacement of the energy industry, the elimination and integration of the financial industry, the gradual realization of the electric vehicle and the large-scale industrial spanformation triggered by the mobile Internet all present unprecedented subversion expectations, and their endogenous and derivative forces are all unparalleled and unprecedented. The bull market is not only real, but also will last for a long time, and its influence is huge, so it has the ability to lead the global stock market to a positive trend. < p > since 2013, the major capital markets in the world have begun to enter a distinct bull market under the guidance of the US stock market, with a static economy. < /p >
P > has become the world's second largest economy in China. In the face of this change, there is a bit of confusion in the pace, chaos and chaos, and the pace of follow up has not stopped. The gem which represents the advanced productive forces and production relations has followed up very positively. The situation is better than that of the leading big brother Nasdaq, and the small board is also good. It has broken through a solid bottom, and only the motherboard has not followed up. For one reason, I tried to analyze the two articles of "efficiency of China's stock market" and "from chips to equity", but the observation angles of the two articles were relatively static, so they could not be the basis for the trend judgement. If we elongate the observation line and look at the problem more dynamically, it might help to judge the trend. < < /p >
The conclusion is based on the judgement of American Industrial Development and spanformation in the past twenty years and the geopolitical accumulation results of the US operation for many years. This article will not elaborate on it. Only the conclusion is drawn that China's gem will be able to follow the NASDAQ step by step on the basis of the economic spanformation expected from the business similarity and the strong demand of the national conditions and the gradual opening of the new stock market (mainly the GEM). The SME board and the gem have complementary effects, and the overall pace will gradually follow up the growth enterprise market. < p > first, the United States is a super long cycle of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > bull market < /a >. < /p >
＜p＞ 当前的实体经济数据，不论是CPI、PPI、GDP增速还是什么克强指数，都不具很强的参考意义，转型时期，本来这些数据就是弱参考，因为它能反映现实，却不是反映预期的强势数据，这是转型所特有的状态;而中国经济的转型，并不是新经济所能完全代表的，新经济只要给点阳光，自己及就灿烂了，因为它本来就是非常充分的市场化;更重要的是那些老旧势力的传统经济能不能顺利完成转型，这才是转型的攻坚战，是需要动用外力的，也是所谓十八大改革最核心的部分，股市表现的盛与衰，就是这个改革的直观写照，如果主板向1600乃至1400发展下去，那就是直接宣告习李新政三年不鸣，直接死掉，也别指望一鸣惊人了;同时也是向世界宣告，中国的银行体系，净资产之下有风险，净资产再腰斩，还是有风险，如果国家金融体系重镇在还未接受变革之前就死翘翘了 The eighteen big and nineteen most of them are not open. Let's call it a day.
＜p＞ 传统势力和体制的改变是漫长而充满了折磨体验的，中国资本市场的二十多年就是一个典型的验证，过程是：为国企解困(纯粹的夺民利益)----股权分置改革(与民让利)----中小板开市(资本市场不再为国企独占)----重量级国企央企大面积上市(与民让利后的对冲，再次夺利)----创业板开市(充分鼓励创业)，总体上看，这个过程是一个进步的过程，也是破冰之旅，只是传统或既得利益势力很强势，把持国民经济重要资源却又低效率，在实体经济中部分核心人员获益很大;但在资本市场上整体产业却逐渐遁形，因为资本市场是未来的预言师，超长期的萎靡不振，无视与之相配的所谓较好投资数据，就是宣告未来的死亡信息，不论是机构还是个人都用脚投票，漫长跌势，把它们的主要代表打到净资产下，实体经济中，新产业的蓬勃发展又在蚕食他们的垄断地盘，两厢夹 击，迫使传统顽固势力必须做出抉择，不改变等崩溃利益归零，重新洗牌，还是主动求变，学会妥协，答案应该是比较明确的，市场经济的优势就是它有能力让各方自然达成最优化选择，这是计划经济完全的盲点，如果市场经济没有这样的必杀技，整个世界的经济体系也不可能在经历半个世纪的冷战相持后，以一方几乎全面的崩塌而告终，中国的央企国企其实骨子里还是计划经济模式，效率低下是必然的，无非是受益于垄断，和整体国民经济的大踏步上位，这个过程中，它没有产生领航型产业的真正实力，禁绝于自由竞争的市场之外，至今居然还是政党力量主导企业管理，所以发展到今天，成为整体经济再上一层楼的滞后元素，而那些在自由经济海洋里遨游出来的产业，不过是十年左右的时间，其实力和影响力居然已经达到完全可以与之相持竞争的程度，银行业好 Two barrels of oil business, if there is no policy resistance, Tencent, Baidu and Ali such new economic predators want to involve in related businesses, breaking the bureau is almost easy, and in the long run, there is no strength to contain it. Unless you do not develop, so when the balance is tilted to the interests of the entire system are threatened, the demand for change naturally arises. < /p >
The issue of programmatic expression is not whether you want to change it or not. It is inevitable that how to change it is the focus of attention. So last week's two oil trading limit is not the same as before. According to inertia, the so-called market manipulation thinking is misreading. Now, just like the end of the Qing Dynasty, if the court of Emperor Guangxu is willing to change, learn from the British initiative to accept the constitutional monarchy, accept the bus book, do not kill six gentlemen, maybe it will not go back to the point of collapse completely. In fact, the opinions and opinions of the six gentlemen were adopted by the Qing court after their death. Unfortunately, the situation is over, and the opportunity can not be repeated; < /p > < p > since last year, the establishment of the Shanghai free trade area and the operation of the pilot reform of state-owned enterprises have been gradually changing to the two largest oil enterprises in the state owned enterprises.
＜p＞ 如果我们整理整个中国经济改革的大线条，就会看的很清楚，什么在进，什么在退，期间的反复和曲折又是什么，《从筹码到股权》一文中列举的数字说明，不断在进的民营经济已经成为中国经济的中坚力量，这就是趋势，异常强劲的，资本市场已经给了很好的展现;主板市场要涅磐重生的核心就在如何求变，不再是外在的给几个铜板的股权分置改革，而是内生体制上的变化，引入民营经济成分，引入市场竞争机制，淡化党政力量在企业经营权上的介入程度，还企业一个纯粹的市场运作环境，这必将是习李新政在未来十年要积极推进的核心，这样去做，无非是顺势而为，因为民智已经真正开启，谁会放弃这种顺水推舟就能扬名立万的机会呢?＜/p＞
＜p＞ 胡温十年，是房地产的十年，到了中后期房地产的财富效应令人疯狂，整个社会除了资本市场和一些电子产品是降价的，几乎全部商品都完成了价格飞涨，好在，历史经验表明，最终资本市场是不会错过这场价格盛宴的，一旦其财富效应被激发起来，它的膨胀力乃至泡沫化程度都是空前的，当前中国经过了十年的财富增长和积累，资金总量巨大，一方面房地产被推高再推高，另一方面真正具有长效财富增值能力的资本市场却冷寂一旁，今天从创业板开始逐渐推暖资本市场的财富效应，外部资本市场的全面激活也将不断加强人们的心理暗示，况且时至今日全球经济一体化的态势下，资产价格的上升效应早晚会传导，在总体经济发展趋势向上，政治相对稳定的前提下，繁荣也是会传染的，一旦资本市场的财富效应开始扩大和深化，在目前中国资金潮的规模下 It is absolutely sufficient to push up the upward energy of the capital market, that is, when the equilibrium point breaks through. < /p >
＜p＞ ＜a href="//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp"＞创业板＜/a＞是引领这个变局的引线和主导，它将贯穿整个牛市被引爆的全程，早就没有二八了，因为二的阵营不再具备其应有的实力，除非变革，变革成功，也就进入到八的行列中，也就开始了新的估值历程，资本市场自然也就有了新的动力和引擎，中国经济的格局和政治体制，虽有高效率，但这个效率是双刃剑，发展快和破坏力大是一样的强，而且它没有自我更新和升级的内生力，正常市场经济下，发展与回撤是并存的，发展产生新的经济元素，回撤消灭过剩产能，但是中国模式显然不能容忍回撤，这是违背经济发展规律的，死亡的公司，死亡的股票，都将在未来的变革中出现，也会尽可能的接近真正的市场经济模式。 < /p >
If you have enough knowledge of culture, you will recognize that the symbol of the most representative Chinese culture is the Great Wall. You will also understand that you will eventually lose to a completely open, free expression and self competitive system. The difference is the most valuable asset for human beings. Opening up, freedom and competition are the necessary tools for gold exploration from the treasure of diversity. It is the unyielding source of human creation and progress. Any culture or system that is harmful to people's access to these three tools is destined to be eliminated. As a small mirror, China's capital market will eventually draw its twists and turns for this process! < /p > < p > if the history of China
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