The State Council Has Finalized Five Tasks For The Capital Market

China's stock market is a policy market, which should not be controversial. Since it is a policy market, we should pay close attention to the impact of policy changes on the stock market. The first half of the year was a reform bull, because the transformation of the market economy is increasingly valued by the top management and the market. What changes have taken place in the stock market policy now?

It is becoming more and more difficult for China's economic development to rely solely on bank credit. The capital market will gradually come to the front and assume more responsibilities. The importance is self-evident. The stability and health of the stock market has become a new hope for China's economy and carries the dream of China's economy becoming a powerful country.

But in order to realize the dream of strengthening China's economy in the capital market, it is necessary to ensure that the vast majority of investors have money to earn, otherwise no one will play with you. Historical experience tells us!

Only by increasing capital market financing can it be possible to further support the development of emerging technology industries, because there are few mortgageable assets at the start-up stage of new technology, it is difficult to obtain bank financing, and new technology is the top priority of China's economy in the future. Therefore, from the public opinion to the market to the senior management, they attach great importance to the planning and construction of the capital market, and reach consensus in the management, that is, to accelerate the progress of the registration system. Recently, the State Council adopted the 13.5 plan for the capital market and established five tasks for the capital market. The author believes that this plan will have a profound impact on the future trend of China's stock market. The following author will elaborate from the perspective of a casual person. The author is just a casual person, not an expert or an analyst, More often, they seek investment opportunities for themselves from their own interests without any suggestion of operation.

The State Council recently finalized five tasks for the capital market.

■ Improve multi-level capital markets such as stocks and bonds. Increase the number of companies listed in the national share transfer system for small and medium-sized enterprises, and study and launch the pilot project of transferring to the GEM

■ Enrich direct financing tools. Promote the pilot securitization of infrastructure assets and standardize the development of online lending

■ Strengthen the supervision of credit rating agencies, accounting, law firms and other intermediaries, and study the cross licensing of securities, funds and futures operating institutions ■ Promote balanced development of investment and financing. Gradually expand the investment of insurance guarantee funds in the capital market, standardize the development of trust, bank financing and other investment and financing functions

■ Strengthen supervision and risk prevention, strengthen the construction of relevant systems, resolutely crack down on financial fraud, illegal fund-raising and other acts in accordance with laws and regulations, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors

The author would like to add that the establishment of the strategic emerging market in Shanghai is also a key work of the future government.

Whether it is to improve the stock and bond market, increase the number of companies listed on the New Third Board, promote the board transfer mechanism, or establish a strategic emerging board to further transition to the registration system, it means that the expansion of new shares will be further accelerated, and the market needs to increase a large number of new funds to enter the market to undertake the expansion of new shares. Public data shows that as of December 17, 718 companies have accepted the first issue. Among them, 67 have met and 651 have not. Among the enterprises that did not pass the meeting, 633 enterprises were normally pending review, and 18 enterprises were suspended from review. According to the analysis of institutional personage, at present, next year The number of "reserves" for share issuance is still high. Therefore, the 13.5 plan means that the era of new share expansion is coming again, and its pace and scale will not be slower than the last round of market-oriented reform. We should fully understand this.

How fast? According to Deloitte's statistics, the A-share market completed 220 IPOs in 2015, raising 158.8 billion yuan. Haitong Securities pointed out that the CSRC made it clear that it would further expand the scale of equity financing in 2016 and implement the registration system as soon as possible. In 2014, the scale of IPO and refinancing was 61.3 billion yuan and 688.2 billion yuan respectively. Although IPO and refinancing were limited in the second half of 2015, there were 140.6 billion yuan and 914.4 billion yuan respectively in the whole year. Considering the further expansion of equity financing in 2016, it is estimated that IPO and refinancing will reach 400 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively in 2016.

The reason why the author always pays attention to IPO is that the game of capital market is actually a game of funds. The rise of stocks depends on the accumulation of funds, not on the mouth. In the near battle for Vanke's equity, Baoneng has spent nearly 40 billion yuan. It is the crazy purchase of Baoneng and the mobilization of market funds to scramble for the price difference, Only then did Vanke's stock rise by 90% in a short period of time. Therefore, if there is no trillions of yuan in the 13.5 plan, it is almost impossible for the stock index to rise.

In order to hedge the expansion of new shares, the CSRC also increased the expansion of capital mobilization, hoping to form a balanced investment and financing market, that is, "gradually expand the investment of insurance guarantee funds in the capital market, standardize the development of trust, bank financing and other investment and financing functions‘

The scale of insurance funds is huge, especially in the recent period, universal insurance investment and linked insurance has been in the limelight, constantly raising the brand of high-quality large cap stocks in the Chinese stock market, which is the so-called asset panic. Another most important issue is the entry of bank financial funds. Financial funds are not only huge in scale, but also require very good liquidity, Its every move will have a profound impact on the capital market. As a financial fund, the first priority is to ensure the safety of the principal, followed by the issue of income. The yield requirement will not be too high, and only 4-5% is enough. Therefore, the high dividend rate, stable operation, and good liquidity of the large market performance stocks are the first choice for financial funds, However, small and medium-sized enterprises with poor liquidity and large stock price fluctuations will not be the favorite of wealth management funds, nor are they suitable for large-scale intervention, which is just a small amount of allocation. Therefore, the author believes that the entry of wealth management funds will be conducive to the improvement of the overall performance, but it is now blocked by deleveraging. I remember that a well-known analyst had similar views, so I found out. "If you see incremental capital entering the market, low-risk preference people entering the market, and 2.5 billion yuan of wealth management coming in, then go Value stock . "According to the context, value investment is an undervalued blue chip stock with high dividend yield.

However, the entry of bank financing funds has been blocked by the management. How to enter the market with deleveraging in the future is a problem that we should focus on. Because the entry of wealth management funds will be related to the transformation of investment style, when it comes to the transformation of investment style, we have to mention the registration system and transfer mechanism.

In the first half of the year, small and medium-sized enterprises were extremely bullish, and many stocks rose in multiples. One reason is the so-called scarcity of market resources. What is the registration system? The essence is to speed up the pace of issuance and support the construction of the real economy. What is the emerging strategic version? In order to cater for the return of Chinese concept stocks and provide a new listing place for new technology industries, especially for companies with large size that are not suitable for the GEM, what is the mechanism for the conversion of the new third board? The essence is to let the new third board enterprises list on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to increase liquidity and financing convenience, and the three channels continuously inject new information into the market Listing resources Will resource scarcity still exist?

Since the scarcity is no longer, or even can we say that it will never be, the supply side has been completely opened, and resources will only be surplus rather than scarce, can small and medium-sized enterprises still maintain the current high valuation? You can think carefully that the 100 times P/E ratio is the peak value of the world's stock market, and the market will soon be on the road to a long return of value. But the short-term slump will not be ignored by the CSRC. After all, it is a new stock disaster, which will affect the progress of stock market financing. According to the author's estimation, the short-term CSRC still has the motivation and responsibility to maintain the existence of short-term overvalued SMEs, For example, controlling the listing price and rhythm will lead to a slow decline in valuation. It is a highly probable event that the P/E ratio returns to about 50 times after two years.

The return of the overall P/E ratio does not mean that all stock prices have plummeted. The future market will show great differentiation. The decline of high valued stocks that are simply hyped by telling stories without performance support will be quite amazing, and some stocks with high growth will stand out as new high-tech blue chips. It is increasingly difficult to hype in the future only by following the trend, Investors need more time to analyze and think if they want to make profits in the capital market. This may be the reason why mainstream people think that the registration system will eliminate a large number of small and medium-sized investors.

Under the board transfer mechanism, once the NEEQ shares enter the GEM, their valuation will be greatly improved, and the huge earning effect will attract a large amount of capital hoarding. Therefore, NEEQ is an important gold mining area, but ordinary investors will have no chance with this, and can only be institutional and market capital giants. The key to the transfer mechanism is to prevent insider trading.

The key to the registration system is the quality of credit rating, so it is particularly important to strengthen the responsibility of all market participants. For this reason, one of the five major tasks of the State Council is to "strengthen the supervision of credit rating agencies, accounting, law firms and other intermediaries". An important supporting measure was the introduction of the sponsor to compensate for the fraudulent listing of new shares earlier. In the future, many departmental regulations and legal provisions will be introduced to improve Registration system System. On the other hand, it is hoped to attract funds by improving the system to protect the interests of investors.

The Chinese stock market has gone to two extremes. The valuation of low price large cap blue chip stocks is very low, while the valuation of small and medium-sized cap stocks is very high. One reason is that the growth of the financial sector is not as good as before. Therefore, promoting the mixed operation of finance and improving the profitability is also an important aspect. Therefore, we will study the "cross licensing of securities, funds and futures operating institutions", which is good for the securities business, The overall commercial benefits also come from the substantial increase in the revenue from registered sponsors, the significant increase in the issuance costs under the bond issuance, the increase in commission income under the significant increase in market value, and the increase in the income from the NEEQ market makers. Because the investment opportunities in the securities business sector are still huge in the future, there is no trend opportunity subject to negative policy at present, but it is still sunny after the adjustment.

Although the number of words for the five major tasks is small, and as a programmatic document, it is unnecessary to specify them too specifically, but as the clarion call for the development of the capital market, China's capital market will enter an era of two-way rapid expansion, and many supporting measures will also be introduced one after another, which is an era of changeable policies. The difference between the author and the optimists is that expansion is very simple and fast, However, the introduction of capital is very difficult and changeable. In 2016, the trend of China's stock market will not be too optimistic, and a monkey market judgment will still be maintained. It is difficult to curb the downward trend of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the main board market will maintain a volatile trend, with more declines. Positive policies will also be introduced, with more gains. The expansion of new shares will increase day by day, and the index space will be blocked soon. Therefore, chasing up and killing down has become the worst mode of operation. Selling up and buying down may be a better way to do it as a last resort.

A more extreme situation is that new funds do not enter the market as scheduled, and the IPO is not effectively controlled, the market trend will be very pessimistic, not only the weight will fall, but also the subject matter will be spared. The market is in an overall weak state, which is not impossible.